Derek Voss
Play-by-play
Renee Castellan
Analyst
Voss
New season, new preview, and this preseason poll is presented a little differently than usual, Renee — no records yet, obviously, so it's built off team ratings. Notre Dame opens at No. 1.
Castellan
And here's the thing that jumped out at me the second I saw the full board, Derek — the ranking order and the actual rating numbers don't line up the way you'd expect. Texas is sitting at No. 16 with a 91 overall rating. Alabama is No. 3 with the exact same 91. Identical number, thirteen spots apart in the poll.
SEGMENT 01
The Full Preseason Top 25
ON SCREEN: PRESEASON TOP 25, WITH RATINGS
| Rk | Team | Overall | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | 89 | 89 | 89 |
| 2 | Ole Miss | 84 | 86 | 82 |
| 3 | Alabama | 91 | 91 | 89 |
| 4 | UNC | 84 | 84 | 86 |
| 5 | Michigan | 89 | 87 | 89 |
| 6 | Miami | 86 | 87 | 86 |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 82 | 86 | 80 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 84 | 86 | 78 |
| 9 | Penn St. | 89 | 93 | 84 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 86 | 87 | 82 |
| 11 | Oregon | 86 | 78 | 91 |
| 12 | Nebraska | 87 | 95 | 82 |
| 13 | LSU | 87 | 89 | 87 |
| 14 | Ohio St. | 87 | 86 | 89 |
| 15 | Florida St. | 87 | 89 | 87 |
| 16 | Texas | 91 | 93 | 87 |
| 17 | UCF | 80 | 80 | 82 |
| 18 | Auburn | 78 | 75 | 84 |
| 19 | USC | 76 | 75 | 82 |
| 20 | Georgia Tech | 82 | 80 | 84 |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 82 | 84 | 82 |
| 22 | Tennessee | 84 | 89 | 80 |
| 23 | Arizona St. | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | 80 | 82 | 80 |
| 25 | UCLA | 89 | 93 | 84 |
Voss
And it's not just Texas. UCLA carries an 89 overall rating — same number as Notre Dame at No. 1 and Michigan at No. 5 — and they're sitting at No. 25.
Castellan
Right, so this poll clearly isn't a straight sort of that rating column. There's returning production, schedule strength, program pedigree, probably last year's finish, all baked in on top of it. Which is a good reminder for anybody using these ratings to make their own picks — the number alone doesn't tell the whole story the committee's actually using.
Voss
Notre Dame's dead-even across the board — 89 overall, 89 offense, 89 defense. Perfectly balanced, no obvious weakness.
Castellan
No real weakness to attack on paper. Compare that to Nebraska at No. 12 — a 95 offense paired with an 82 defense. That's a team that's going to win a lot of shootouts and probably lose at least one game it shouldn't.
SEGMENT 02
Ole Miss: The Champion's Encore
Voss
Ole Miss opens at No. 2 after that stunning 7-seed title run. Not No. 1, though — that's interesting on its own.
Castellan
We've actually seen this pattern before on this desk. Notre Dame won it all in 2025 and took a real step back the very next season. Defending a title in this sport, in this data, has never once meant returning as the unquestioned favorite. Ole Miss at No. 2 fits right into that pattern.
SEGMENT 03
National Champion: The Streaks Nobody Talked About
Voss
Which brings us to the pick itself, Renee. This time we went back through every season on record — every conference championship, every recruiting board, every coach's full track record — not just the newest data point.
Castellan
And it already changed our champion pick. Going year by year through the conference championship games turned up something we'd never actually said out loud on this desk before.
ON SCREEN: CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS, THREE YEARS RUNNING
| Conference | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Miami | Miami | Miami |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | Texas Tech |
| SEC | Alabama | Georgia | Ole Miss |
| Big Ten | Penn St. | Michigan | Michigan |
Voss
Miami and Texas Tech have both won their conference three straight years. We've covered Texas Tech's McGuire building a national-title-game résumé, but we never put it together that he's also been perfect in conference play the entire time we've tracked him.
Castellan
That's the strongest, most boring, most correct pick on this entire show. A coach with a national title game appearance, a Best HC Award, and three straight conference titles, on a team that's a returning CFP participant every year we've tracked it. I'm taking Texas Tech to win it all. Not a hot take, but it's the pick the data actually supports better than anyone else on the board.
The Pick
Texas Tech
High Confidence
Voss
What about Miami, given the same three-peat?
Castellan
Miami's a great case for making the CFP field again, and I'd have them there. But their own recruiting class fell four spots into this cycle (No. 6 to No. 10), while Texas Tech's rating and coaching résumé both point the same direction. Miami's my pick to three-peat the ACC. Texas Tech's my pick to win the whole thing.
SEGMENT 04
Conference-By-Conference Champions
ON SCREEN: 2028 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
| Conference | Pick | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 | Texas Tech | High | 3 straight titles, preseason No. 10 rating (86) |
| ACC | Miami | High | 3 straight titles, preseason No. 6 rating (86) |
| SEC | Alabama | Medium | No repeat champ in 3 years, but Alabama has the No. 1 recruiting class and a 91 overall rating, best of the three ranked SEC teams (Ole Miss, Texas A&M) |
| Big Ten | Michigan | Medium | Back-to-back champion, preseason No. 5 rating (89) |
| American | USF | Low | Defending champion, but neither USF nor North Texas cracked the preseason Top 25 this cycle — no ranking signal to lean on |
| Mountain West | Wyoming | None | Defending champion is the only signal available — no ranked team, no recruiting data tracked for this conference |
| CUSA | Missouri St. | None | Defending champion is the only signal available |
| MAC | Ball St. | None | Defending champion, and coach Mike Uremovich won the national Best HC Award in 2025 |
| PAC-12 | Texas St. | None | Defending champion is the only signal available |
| Sun Belt | Louisiana | None | Defending champion is the only signal available |
Castellan
I want to be honest about the bottom half of this list, Derek. Five of these ten conferences, we've got nothing but "the same team won last time" to go on. No ranked team, no recruiting class in our tracked data, nothing. Picking the defending champ there isn't analysis, it's just the absence of a reason to pick anyone else.
Voss
Worth noting on the American, too — USF just won it, North Texas played for it, and neither one is even in the preseason Top 25 this year. That's a real value gap if either of them is actually still that good.
SEGMENT 05
Recruiting-Board Darkhorses
ON SCREEN: BIGGEST 2028 RECRUITING RISERS
| School | 2027 Rank | 2028 Rank | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 23 | 1 | +22 |
| LSU | 11 | 2 | +9 |
| Texas | 16 | 4 | +12 |
| Ole Miss | 15 | 6 | +9 |
Voss
Last time we did this show, Alabama was the only riser we mentioned. LSU jumping nine spots to No. 2 got skipped over completely.
Castellan
And LSU's case is stronger than a recruiting number alone, too — Brian Kelly's already got a CFP Round 1 win in 2026 and an Alamo Bowl title in 2027, two different seasons, both on his résumé, even while sitting on a hot-seat list the whole time. Add the No. 2 class on top of that track record, and LSU's my second darkhorse behind Alabama.
The Pick
Alabama, With LSU Right Behind
Medium Confidence
SEGMENT 06
The 2028 Coaching Hot Seat
ON SCREEN: 2028 HOT SEAT WATCH
Auburn · Hugh Freeze
9-3 a year ago, made the CFP field — still on this board.
Iowa · Kirk Ferentz
First appearance on any hot-seat board this chronicle has tracked.
Missouri · Eliah Drinkwitz
Survived a 1-11 season; back on notice again.
Penn St. · James Franklin
Carrying over from last cycle's board.
TCU · Sonny Dykes
Carrying over from last cycle's board.
Tennessee · Josh Heupel
Carrying over from last cycle's board.
Virginia Tech · Brent Pry
Carrying over from last cycle's board.
Voss
Kirk Ferentz is the name everybody's going to be talking about all offseason.
Castellan
And Hugh Freeze staying on this list for a third straight cycle, after a season that included a CFP berth, is still the one I can't fully square. At some point that stops being a hot seat and starts being an unusually cautious administration.
SEGMENT 07
Coaching Casualties
The Pick
2–3 Firings From The Current Hot-Seat Board
High Confidence
Castellan
This is the safest pick on the show. Every single tracked season has produced at least one in-season or end-of-season firing from that hot-seat list, and last year alone gave us two mid-season changes. Seven names are on the 2028 board. I'd bet on Missouri's Eliah Drinkwitz finally running out of runway after surviving a 1-and-11 season, and I wouldn't be shocked if Virginia Tech or TCU is the second.
Voss
What about Hugh Freeze? He's been on this board multiple cycles now despite genuinely good seasons.
Castellan
That's exactly why I'm not picking him. Whatever's keeping Auburn nervous about him clearly isn't about the scoreboard, and if he's survived a CFP appearance already, I don't think a good-not-great season changes that calculus either. He's the name most likely to survive this list a fourth time.
SEGMENT 08
Heisman Watch: The Reigning Winner, And Not Much Else
ON SCREEN: 2028 HEISMAN WATCHLIST, PRESEASON
| Name | Pos. | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Jaray Rask | QB | Iowa St. |
| Stephon Benjamin | QB | Auburn |
| Kevin Washington | HB | Notre Dame |
| Thomas Teague | QB | LSU |
| Deshawn Bernard | WR | Iowa St. |
Voss
Just five names on the board at this earliest checkpoint, and the reigning winner is one of them — Jaray Rask, back for another year at Iowa State, and his teammate Deshawn Bernard is right there with him.
Jaray Rask Reigning Winner
QB, Iowa St. The 2027 Heisman and Davey O'Brien winner (225-313, 3,334 yds, 37 TD, 4 rush TD), but his team's year ended one step short — Iowa St. lost the Big 12 title game 38-35 to Texas Tech, then bowed out of the CFP in the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal, 38-24 to Ole Miss. Coach Matt Campbell still won the national Best HC Award that season anyway.
Deshawn Bernard The Teammate
WR, Iowa St. Four weeks on last year's watchlist riding alongside Rask's Heisman run, on the same Big 12 runner-up roster. No individual stat line tracked yet — this is the first year he's a name of his own instead of just "Rask's teammate."
Stephon Benjamin Still Searching
QB, Auburn. The program's only tracked accomplishment in three years is a 2027 CFP Round 1 trip — a 41-7 loss to Ole Miss as the No. 10 seed. Coach Hugh Freeze is still on the hot-seat board despite it (see Storylines To Watch).
Kevin Washington Filling A Big Shoe
HB, Notre Dame. The Irish won the 2025 national title behind Jeremiyah Love, a Doak Walker-winning back at Washington's own position, and have reached the CFP both years since without finding that level again (a Round 2 exit in 2026, a Fiesta Bowl semifinal loss in 2027). Washington's the one being asked to be the next Love.
Thomas Teague Two Different Peaks
QB, LSU. Brian Kelly's program has flashed at two different peaks the last two years without stacking them — a CFP Round 1 win in 2026 (before a Sugar Bowl exit to Georgia) and an Alamo Bowl title in 2027. Teague's job is making those two peaks into one real run.
Castellan
Worth flagging for our regulars — Jordan Molinich isn't on this list yet. It's five names in preseason, way too early to call it anything, but he's got a mixed track record here — off the board entirely in 2026, on it for a preseason stretch in 2027. If he's still off this board once real games start, that's the first thing we check back in on.
SEGMENT 09
Heisman Winner: The Pick
The Pick
A New Winner — Not Jaray Rask
High Confidence
Voss
Rask is the reigning winner and he's already on the preseason board. Why bet against him?
Castellan
Because it's never happened, and it's not just the Heisman — we checked every major individual award this time, going year by year. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman in 2025, gone the next year. Arch Manning in 2026, gone. Maddox Marcellus won Bednarik and Butkus in 2026 and didn't repeat either one in 2027 — Suntarine Perkins swept both instead. Every voted national award we've tracked has turned over completely, every single year. It's really only the pure statistical leaderboards — not the voted awards — where we've seen anyone repeat: Molinich in rushing yards, Marcellus in tackles.
Voss
That's a much stronger case than we made last time.
Castellan
It is. I'll still take the field over Rask — meaning one of the other four names already on this board, not someone who isn't tracked yet. Stephon Benjamin's my first choice. Auburn's the proven program of that group right now, hot seat or not, and that's usually where these things get decided. Thomas Teague's my second guess, if Brian Kelly's program ever stacks its two different peaks into one real season instead of alternating them.
SEGMENT 10
National Stat Leaders: Expect New Names, With Two Exceptions
Castellan
This is a pattern we've never actually said out loud before, Derek, and it's remarkably consistent. Passing, receiving, sacks, interceptions — every one of those national leaderboards has been a completely different name every year we've tracked. Only two categories have actually repeated.
Voss
Molinich in rushing, and…
Castellan
Maddox Marcellus in tackles — 134 in 2026, 147 in 2027, the national leader both years, same as Molinich. But Marcellus is NFL-bound, not back for 2028 — so tackles goes back into the "new name every year" pile regardless. Molinich's the only one of the two actually positioned to make it three straight.
SEGMENT 11
National Breakout Freshman
ON SCREEN: TOP HS RECRUITS, 2028 CLASS
The Pick
JD Miller, Eastern Michigan
Low Confidence, High Ceiling
Voss
We flagged this name a while back — the No. 5 high school recruit in the country signing with a 1-and-11 program.
Castellan
Right, and I want to put a real prediction on it now instead of just noting it. Blue-chip talent on a bad roster usually means one of two things: he transfers out within two years, or he puts up huge individual numbers on a team that can't stop anyone, because he's got no competition for touches or reps. I'll bet on the second outcome for year one, at least — watch his raw production numbers even if Eastern Michigan's record doesn't move.
SEGMENT 12
The Bold Call
Voss
Last one, Renee. Give me the pick you're least confident in but can't stop thinking about.
Castellan
Another outsider run to the title game. We watched a 7-seed beat a 9-seed for the whole thing last year — the first time either finalist wasn't one of the bracket's top seeds since we started tracking this format. If we get a repeat of that this year, it stops being a fluke and starts being the actual identity of this playoff format — and it would mean picking Texas Tech to win it all is actually the contrarian choice on this board, not the safe one.
SEGMENT 13
Storylines To Watch
Voss
Before we close, let's get personal for a minute. Renee, who are you actually watching once the season starts?
Castellan
Jaray Rask, and it's not close. We just laid out that every voted national award on record has turned over the very next year — Mendoza, Manning, Marcellus and Perkins splitting Bednarik and Butkus between them. Rask is the first reigning Heisman winner we've tracked walking into a season as the preseason favorite to repeat. Either he breaks the pattern, or he becomes the next name on a list that's three deep already.
Voss
And he's not even the only Heisman name in that building. Deshawn Bernard's right there with him on the preseason board.
Castellan
Which is its own storyline. Iowa State doesn't have a quarterback problem or a receiver problem, it has an embarrassment-of-riches problem — two legitimate Heisman cases on the same roster, both chasing the same trophy their own teammate already has. If the Cyclones are great again, the awards voters are going to have to pick one of them, and that's a fight that didn't exist in this sport last year.
Voss
What about on the coaching side?
Castellan
Hugh Freeze. Third straight cycle on a hot-seat board despite a CFP appearance last year — that Round 1 loss to Ole Miss clearly didn't buy him any goodwill. If a program's patience is running out after a season that good, that's not really about the record anymore, that's about something behind the scenes we're not seeing. Whatever it is, 2028 reads like the last chance to make it go away.
Voss
And that puts his quarterback in an odd spot too — Stephon Benjamin's on the Heisman board, but he's also the guy whose every incompletion gets read as a referendum on his coach.
Castellan
That's real pressure for a player who's never had to answer for someone else's job security before. A big year from Benjamin probably buys Freeze another cycle regardless of anything else on this list. A rough one, and he becomes part of the case against him whether that's fair or not.
Voss
And Kirk Ferentz landing on a hot-seat board for the first time ever, after two bowl wins the last two years?
Castellan
That's the one I still can't explain. That's either the quietest coaching change of the year building, or the most overblown name on the entire board. A coach with that much tenure doesn't show up on a list like this over a couple of bowl losses that didn't even happen — something else is driving it.
Voss
One more before we go — Georgia. They're not walking away with anybody this cycle, they're the ones losing players. Jordan Hall to Oklahoma, Zayden Walker to Notre Dame, now J'Vari Flowers all the way to Southern Jaguars football.
Castellan
Three portal losses in three years and not a single name walking in the other direction, as far as we've tracked. No losing season to point to, so it's not the obvious story yet. But if that drain continues into a fourth year, it stops being a coincidence and starts being a referendum on the staff, regardless of what the win total says.
SEGMENT 14
What To Watch
Voss
Renee, close us out. What's the one thing you want eyes on as this season kicks off?
Castellan
Whether that ratings-versus-ranking gap we opened with actually means anything once games are played. If Texas at No. 16 starts blowing out teams the way a 91-rated roster should, that's a real story about this preseason poll undervaluing somebody. And keep half an eye on Iowa — a coach with that much history landing on a hot-seat board for the first time is the kind of storyline that either fizzles by October or completely dominates a season.
Voss
And that's the board: Texas Tech to finally cash in a three-peat conference streak and win it all, no Heisman repeat, Alabama and LSU as the recruiting-backed darkhorses, and at least two coaches out of a job by year's end. We'll see everyone back here once the games actually start counting.
Next Read
2028 Check-In: Through Week 1